Back when he was at USC, I bought many shares of Sam Darnold stock, due to his “plus” size, “plus” arm strength, “plus” mobility, and “gamer” qualities. I just liked what I saw of him, in college. And then Darnold embarked on a journey through the nighttime world of the NFL, which included stops with the then-disastrous New York Jets, and a trade to the equally-if-not-more-disastrous Carolina Panthers. Said nighttime world included lots of coach/coordinator changes and dubious supporting casts. To wit, here’s a short list of Darnold’s receiving “targets” during those years:
Chris Herndon (a TE)
Jermaine Kearse
Terrelle Pryor (a converted QB)
Robbie Chosen (nee’ Anderson)
Jamison Crowder (a journeyman)
And here’s a list of Sam Darnold’s head coaches:
Todd Bowles
Adam Gase
Matt Rhule
And finally, Kyle Shanahan last season.
Here’s what is still true, of Darnold:
He’s 6’3” 225, and is only 26 years old, making him just two years older than 2024 Draft prospects Bo Nix and Sam Hartman…except that Darnold has been in the NFL since 2018.
Like a soldier returning from war (if by “war” we mean stints with the Jets and Panthers), Darnold got to rehabilitate himself and do some “R & R” with a real organization this year, as a member of the San Francisco 49ers.
Also true of Darnold: In his last two seasons, he is 4-3 as a starter, with TD/INT ratio of 9/4, and a completion percentage hovering around 60%. He has rushed for 121 yards and 3 scores. Is this the most devastatingly positive evidence of all time? No...but for a team in need of a young quarterback who possesses Real First Round Quarterback Qualities (as opposed to my guy Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, Old Ryan Tannehill, Too Expensive Post Achilles Kirk Cousins, Is What He Is Jameis Winston, et al)…you could do worse.
Film Stuff: at Las Vegas (preseason ’23) vs. LAC (preseason ’23). Darnold stands tall in the pocket with his eyes downfield, and still possesses notable arm strength and an ability to rip the ball downfield with ease, feather-in deep throws, and throw to the sideline from the opposite hash. Not everyone can do this. He can drive the ball into tight windows which is still kind of a “greatest-strength/greatest-weakness” type thing, because it means he’ll try to. You saw the athleticism, and the ability to move in the pocket and evade the first guy.
The question for all teams entering free agency, but especially the mid-first-round quarterback-needy clubs like Las Vegas, Denver, Atlanta, New Orleans, Minnesota and (I’ll explain) New England is this: “Do we like him better than what might be available for us in the draft?” Especially since Darnold should be gettable at a mid-career-veteran bargain price. You’re essentially paying a Bridge Quarterback price for a still-young guy with Franchise Quarterback qualities. With the possible exception of Baker Mayfield, this isn’t true of anyone else in this free agency class.
Personally, I like Darnold better than Nix or Michael Penix, just in terms of qualities. He’s barely older than Nix and he’s bigger than Penix, with a stronger arm. I like him better than giving up significant draft capital for Justin Fields, who I’ll have to decide to overpay soon anyway. I probably like J.J. McCarthy’s upside a little more, but there are questions marks about him (like the fact that he’s skinny and didn’t have to throw much) and regardless, only one of the aforementioned teams will be able to draft McCarthy.
Which brings us to New England. If I’m New England and sign Darnold (which would be bold, punk-rock, and may cause the fan base to revolt)…I could stay put at 3 and draft sure-thing WR Marvin Harrison Jr. OR…I could sell 3 for a king’s ransom, grab Rome Odunze in the middle of the round, and probably also fix OT with somebody like Tyler Guyton or Troy Fautanu late in the first or early second. Both of these scenarios are (to me) more appealing than drafting Jayden Daniels and throwing him out there behind a patchwork offensive line and making him throw to basically nobody.
If I’m Denver, I could do worse than a Sean Payton/Sam Darnold rehabilitation project. If I’m Las Vegas or Atlanta, I need literally anybody. If I’m New Orleans and Minnesota I’m kicking the tires, at least on an idea level, as it allows you to get younger and cheaper while potentially taking a flyer on a mid-round project QB (Spencer Rattler, anyone?).