Note: If you enjoy this kind of semi-analytical backward-gazing football stuff, check out this book and this book.
I’ve been thinking a lot about team-building lately, and a lot about teams that are in the midst of rebuilds, like the Houston Texans. The Texans haven’t enjoyed much success in their relatively short history with only 10 playoff appearances (four wins), and a lifetime record of 142-195-1. The most successful coach in franchise history is Gary Kubiak with a 61-64 record. I wondered what might have happened if they could just do 2002 (the beginning of their franchise) over?
So I’ve re-examined the unprotected player list from the 2002 expansion draft (with cap numbers) and will re-draft for the Texans. In examining the list I got a real sense for what the Texans were up against, as most of the players on it were some combination of the following: old, expensive, and underperforming. Often all three. The rest of the league was clearly hoping to dump their bad contracts on the Texans.
By rule, the Texans were required to select 30 players or spend at least 38 percent of their salary cap, which totaled $27.24 million. I will endeavor to do the same. And then I will re-pick the Texans 2002 NFL Draft (with the benefit of hindsight). In doing so, I’ll endeavor to put a competitive Starting 22 on the field, and see how they’d match up with the actual ’02 Texans.
Here’s who they actually took, with previous team and cap number:
1 Tony Boselli OT Jacksonville Jaguars $6,883,332
2 Ryan Young OT New York Jets $563,000
3 Aaron Glenn CB New York Jets $8,013,177
4 Gary Walker DT Jacksonville Jaguars $5,250,000
5 Jamie Sharper LB Baltimore Ravens $2,875,000
6 Jermaine Lewis WR Baltimore Ravens $4,289,333
7 Marcus Coleman CB New York Jets $5,480,750
8 Seth Payne DT Jacksonville Jaguars $2,775,000
9 Matt Campbell G Washington Redskins $875,000
10 Matt Stevens S New England Patriots $565,000
11 Jeremy McKinney G Cleveland Browns $405,760
12 Ryan Schau OT Philadelphia Eagles $563,000
13 Charlie Rogers KR Seattle Seahawks $563,000
14 Sean McDermott TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers $300,000
15 Jabari Issa DE Arizona Cardinals $397,666
16 Avion Black WR Buffalo Bills $460,000
17 Danny Wuerffel QB Chicago Bears $555,760
18 Brian Allen LB St. Louis Rams $452,000
19 Johnny Huggins TE Dallas Cowboys $300,000
Total Spent: $41,566,778
Analysis: Boselli was supposed to be the “filet” of this group, but never played a down for the Texans, due to injury. CB Aaron Glenn was a great pick, and went to the Pro Bowl in his first season as a Texan. Seth Payne and Gary Walker were good mid-career finds and became DL stalwarts. Mid-career LB Jamie Sharper contributed three solid seasons. CB Marcus Coleman recorded a whopping 7 INT’s in 2003. Jermaine Lewis was strictly a return guy…as was Charlie Rogers who played the 2002 season as a Buffalo Bill…as was Avion Black, who returned a few kicks as a Texan. Wuerffel played for the Redskins in 2002. Guards Matt Campbell and Jeremy McKinney never played a down in Houston. Ditto for DE Jabari Issa.
Now on to the fun part. Let’s re-draft the 2002 Texans.
My Expansion Draft with Analysis
Player Position Cap Number
Aaron Glenn CB $8,013,177
Analysis: He’s expensive, but plays a high-impact position and is a mid-career premium player with quality starts left to give.
Charlie Batch QB $ 3,638,931
Analysis: This is where it’s gonna get interesting. Rather than drafting David Carr #1 overall and throwing him to the wolves behind a patchwork OL…we’re gonna grab former Detroit Lion Charlie Batch, who has another decade of NFL football in him, and can get us on our feet while we figure out the rest of the offense.
Keenan McCardell WR $4,565,000
Analysis: Let’s give Batch a weapon on the outside in McCardell, who has several starting seasons left, including a Pro Bowl season in 2003. So far, our spending isn’t all that far off from what the Texans did in real life, and we have three pretty serviceable NFL starters.
Reuben Droughns RB $300,000
Analysis: It was time for a bargain purchase, and Droughns is that guy. A rugged banger at 5’11” and 220, Droughns posts back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2003 and 2004.
Brad Badger G/T $975,000
Analysis: Another bargain here, at less than a million against the cap, Badger has a couple of seasons left as a versatile OL piece.
Ken Dilger TE $3,390,000
Analysis: This is probably a little spendy for late-career Dilger, but he blocks, and I always liked him as a Colt. He’ll be good for 25-30 catches per over the next three seasons, and when paired with Droughns and McCardell, I like how our skill group is rounding into form.
Troy Walters WR/RET $406,000
Analysis: Walters will be my KR/PR and contribute 30 catches as my 3rd or 4th WR. I like the value here.
Gary Walker DT $5,250,000
Analysis: Again, probably a little rich here, but I believe in building up front and Walker has quality years left.
Kipp Vickers G/T $725,000
Analysis: Give me the last year of Kipp Vickers here, for the veteran minimum. He can start at either guard or tackle.
Darrin Smith ILB $1,612,000
Analysis: I need a leader for my defense, who understands a winning culture. Smith is that guy, and he can run. We’ll get a few more starting seasons out of him. However, I need to start to dial back my spending.
Bracy Walker S/CB $812,500
Analysis: I’ve overspent and I’m only 11 players in, but Walker is a versatile back-end guy with a couple of starting years left. A relative bargain.
Ryan Young OT $563,000
Total So Far: $29,438,108
Analysis: I still have about $11 million to spend if I want to catch up with Houston’s real-life expansion draft spending, but I really like the nucleus I’m building, and might be done soon and head into the draft. But first, I want to add a few more pieces.
Seth Payne DT $2,775,000
Analysis: Payne and Walker provide a stout defensive front, immediately. Now for some EDGE help.
Bill Romanowski OLB $3,494,098
Analysis: This one will sell some jerseys and get the fan base excited. Romo is a high-motor attitude guy, and we’ll need that as an expansion squad with limited talent. He’s also durable and will start 16 games in 2002. I probably could have just bought Sharper here, like they did in real life, but I like Romanowski as a needle-mover.
Brad Jackson LB $563,000
Analysis: Former Raven Brad Jackson can start some games, play some special teams, and do it on the cheap. Every roster needs guys like this.
Total Spent: $36,270,000
Analysis: I’ve spent considerably less than the real-life Texans and like my roster a WHOLE lot better. We have the makings of a playable NFL offensive and defensive line, some tone-setters at linebacker, and a few weapons for Charlie Batch. Most importantly, we have several winning-culture type guys, who have appeared in Super Bowls in Dilger, Romanowski, McCardell, Jackson, and Smith.
Now let’s move on to the college draft:
2002 Texans College Re-Draft
Ground Rule: The only rule here is that the player had to actually be available when the Texans were on the clock in real life.
Rd 1, Pick 1: Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse.
Analysis: A high-energy tone-setter, Freeney will fly off the edge for me on his way to seven Pro Bowl appearances. I debated on Peppers here, but I just love Freeney’s impact on the game. Freeney, Payne, and Walker makes for a top-half DL, right out of the gate. Needless to say, we didn’t go quarterback.
Rd 2, Pick 33: G/C Andre Gurode, Colorado
Analysis: The Colorado road-grader will be a five-time Pro Bowler. I don’t feel like it took a genius to scout Gurode, as he had the makings of a solid pro. It feels like Houston over-thought a lot of its real-life picks.
Rd 2, Pick 50: Deion Branch, WR, Louisville
Analysis: Branch and Keenan McCardell…not too shabs on the outside. Charlie Batch should have some fun in this offense!
Rd 3, Pick 66: Chester Taylor, RB, Maryland
Analysis: This versatile runner/receiver will pair nicely with the one-dimensional Droughns and provide a nice change-of-pace.
Rd 3, Pick 83: Randy McMichael, TE, Georgia
Analysis: One of the first real athletic/speed guys in the modern TE era, McMichael will be the flex TE in my office while Dilger holds it down in-line.
Rd 4, Pick 99: Aaron Kampmann, DE, Iowa
Analysis: I’ll take Kampmann and his 55 career sacks here. I’m suddenly very bullish about my front-seven. Now I need to start thinking about positions-of-need as I fill out my All-22.
Rd 5, Pick 136: Jermaine Phillips, S, Georgia
Analysis: He’ll pair nicely with Bracey Walker here, and chip in 336 career tackles.
Rd 5, Pick 153: Jonathan Goodwin, G, Michigan
Analysis: I can’t resist another value OL pick here. I’ll get a bunch of quality starts out of Goodwin, and a Pro Bowl appearance.
Rd 6, Pick 173: Demarcus Faggins, CB, Kansas St.
Analysis: Faggins was the Texans pick here in real life. I can pair him with Aaron Glenn on the outside, and at least be able to line up and play football games.
Rd 6, Pick 190: Bart Scott, LB, Southern Illnois
Analysis: I couldn’t wait any longer to pull the trigger on a small-school sleeper (and real life UDFA) who will team up with Romanowski to lead the league in personal fouls (but also play some great Pro Bowl-level football).
Rd 7, Pick 229: Brett Keisel, DE, BYU
Analysis: 30 career sacks, an exceptional beard, and a ton of starts. I’ll take it in Round 7.
Rd 7, Pick 261: Shaun Hill, QB, Maryland
Analysis: I need a young, developmental guy to back up Charlie Batch, and this real-life UDFA fits the bill.
Let’s Take a Look at My All-22
Offense:
WR: Keenan McCardell
WR: Deion Branch/Troy Walters
TE: Randy McMichael
TE: Ken Dilger
RB: Chester Taylor
RB: Reuben Droughns
QB: Charlie Batch
T: Brad Badger
T: Ryan Young
G: Jonathan Goodwin
G: Kipp Vickers
C: Andre Gurode
Defense
DT: Seth Payne
DT: Gary Walker
DE: Dwight Freeney
DE: Aaron Kampmann/Brett Keisel
OLB: Bart Scott
OLB: Bill Romanowski
ILB: Darrin Smith
CB: Aaron Glenn
CB: D’Marcus Faggins
S: Bracy Walker
S: Jermaine Phillips
Analysis: The real-life Texans went 4-12 in their first season, starting a ton of rookies on both sides of the ball. And with the exception of a few solid defensive players in Glenn, Payne and Walker, their real-life expansion draft didn’t net them a whole lot. And it was almost criminal the way they didn’t protect David Carr and gave him absolutely no one to throw the ball to. It’s semi-miraculous they won four games, honestly.
By comparison (and of course with the benefit of history on my side), I spent less and got more in the expansion draft – both in terms of on-field production and culture. I like that I snagged a few veteran linemen and a couple of solid veteran pass-catchers in McCardell and Dilger. Defensively, I probably should have sprung for the other corner in the expansion draft, but I really like what I got, for the money. I like my linebacking corps a lot (it still mattered back then), and my defensive line is legitimately scary.
And in retrospect I think kicking the can down the proverbial road, quarterback-wise, would have been the move. I don’t remember how “generational” or “special” Carr was purported to be as a prospect, but I know there was a lot of hype around Joey Harrington that year as well, and we all know how that turned out. But gosh, this exercise proved there was talent to be had in ALL rounds of the 2002 draft. If the Texans had hit on just a few of those players, they could have really set the franchise up for success.
As it turned out in real life, no one from the Texans 2002 draft class made a Pro Bowl, and it was a mostly-forgettable group. And while Charlie Batch was no superstar, he was a good-value NFL starter, who could have distributed the ball and scored some points with this group. My OL is still nothing to write home about, but I like the young pieces in Gurode and Goodwin, coupled with veterans who had starting experience (Badger/Vickers). I legitimately love the mixture of young talent with veteran production in my WR and TE rooms, and I like my RB group quite a bit too.