Three Free-Agent Running Backs: A Short Tape Study
by Ted Kluck
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There are three semi-big-name free-agent running backs who, as of this writing, are still unsigned. They are all 28-years-old, which is not old, even by current “ridiculous running-back-discussion” standards. Two of them (Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette) were in the last wave of “drafting running backs in the first round seems semi-normal.” One of them was an incredibly proficient pass-catcher last season (and it’s not who you think). One of them (Kareem Hunt) ended up being on the leading edge of the “The Running back Market is Getting Weird” movement inasmuch as he rushed for 1,327 yards (4.9 ypc) in addition to 53 catches as a rookie, and two years later his team got rid of him.
An argument could be made that all three of them are better than the starting running back on your favorite team - provided your favorite team isn’t the Colts (Jonathan Taylor, tenuously), the Browns (Nick Chubb), the Raiders (Josh Jacobs), the 49ers (McCaffrey) or Titans (Derrick Henry). With an honorable mention going to the Giants (Saquon), kind of?
They are all unemployed, as is Dalvin Cook (who turns 28 in two days). The selfsame Dalvin Cook who has basically been a lock for 1,100 yards rushing and 40 catches each season. The NFL is weird.
Leonard Fournette: I watched his Week 16 2022 tape against Arizona, because he had 20 carries and 9 catches. Of the three backs I’m studying, Fournette was probably working behind the worst offensive line of the three I studied in 2022, which offensive line (with the exception of Tristan Wirfs and maybe Shaq Mason) could best be described as “patchwork.”
This was an ugly game, which Tampa won 19-16 over a team that had basically given up and was starting Trace McSorley at quarterback. Fournette was the game’s leading rusher and receiver. They ran him almost exclusively on counters which were fooling nobody. But despite it being Week 16, his legs looked springy, and the words I’d use to describe him are “smooth” and “vision.” For lack of a more eloquent term, Fournette just knows where to go, with and without the football, and he never looks like he’s trying that hard (a compliment). His hands are really soft, and he can usually make the first guy miss as a pass receiver. What’s crazy is that the game-plan for this game seemed to be “checkdowns and screens.” Brady wasn’t even looking downfield. Maybe he was banged up.
What’s crazy (again) is that Fournette had 73 catches last season (7.19 per). The supposedly-more-dynamic Saquon Barkley had 57 (5.9 per).
Despite being a bigger guy, Fournette isn’t overly physical, which could be both good and bad. Bad in that the whole “wearing down a defense” thing isn’t really a thing, but good in that he’ll stay healthy/fresh and his style could age well.
If I’m a supposedly-contending team like the Jets (with a banged up Breece Hall), I might kick the tires here on a bargain, non-Dalvin-Cook signing. I can’t imagine they’re comfortable giving Michael Carter 20-plus carries a game.
Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott and Fournette are exactly the same size (6’0” 228). But we sort of “perceive” Fournette as bigger…or at least I do. You could probably make the biggest “the wear and tear has taken its toll” argument with Elliott, who doesn’t appear to be running with as much burst as he used to, and whose passing-game relevance has really declined of late and was probably never as significant as that of Fournette and Hunt.
I watched his Week 16 tape vs. Philadelphia. In fairness to Elliott, his OL wasn’t much to write home about in 2022 either, and Philly was hard to run against. There wasn’t a lot to “see” in that there was a guy in his face almost immediately. But whereas he used to make that guy miss, he isn’t much anymore (or didn’t on this tape). The offense was clearly more dynamic with Pollard on the field, and by this point it was clearly Pollard’s team. He has 1,881 career carries, which is almost two full-time season’s worth more than Fournette (1,132) and WAY more than Hunt (800 and change). So they’re all 28, but a very different 28.
I’d honestly be really surprised if the Patriots sign him (though he took a NE visit). He probably still perceives himself as a centerpiece, and Belichick really doesn’t “do” centerpiece. And he’s not the kind of middle-reliever who’s gonna come off the bench cold and give you “dynamic” on a few carries (like Hunt, who has kind of perfected that).
Kareem Hunt: This one was fun because I hadn’t watched or thought about Kareem Hunt much since his late 2010’s run with Kansas City, which seems like it happened 20 years ago. It’s worth mentioning that Hunt was the offensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowler in 2017.
I watched his Week 2 matchup at home vs. the Jets, primarily because he received a lot of touches and the matchup seemed interesting, what with Quinnen Williams and the overall friskiness of the Jets front. Hunt ran a lot of inside and outside zone, and was also relied-upon a good bit in pass protection. He carried 13 times for 58 yards (4.6 per) and was, surprisingly to me, the most physical, angry runner of the three, despite being the smallest at 5’11” 216.
His usage took a real nosedive over the back half of 2022, which can probably be attributed to Deshaun Watson and his running becoming a factor. Also, Hunt has had the strange blessing/curse of backing up Nick Chubb in Cleveland, who may be the best pure runner in football. A curse because he could have been The Guy on many rosters (and once was in KC), but a blessing because his wear-and-tear factor is lower than that of Fournette and Elliott.
To me, Hunt seems the most “Belichickian” of the three - inasmuch as he’s comfortable as a role player, he blocks, he catches, and he’s physical. He reminds me a little of a more dynamic Laurence Maroney or a less-receiverish James White. It seems to me that he would be a perfect compliment to Rhamondre Stevenson.