Trevor Lawrence as "Exhibit A" of Quarterback Overpay (and the Idea that The Media is Running Your Favorite Teams): A Comparison in Two Parts

by Ted Kluck

Per Sports Illustrated: Lawrence's deal will pay him an average of $55 million a season, which ties him with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow as the highest-paid player on an annual basis in the NFL.

There is no one on the planet who would make the argument that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is anywhere near as good as Joe Burrow, or that he is anywhere near the force-multiplier on the rest of his team. But the question is, “Is he that much better than Mac Jones, with whom he shares the Jacksonville quarterback room?” or “Where is he when compared with Jacksonville’s one successful quarterback in franchise history, Mark Brunell?” (About which Steve Buerlein may have something to say).

Jacksonville’s Weird Roster

First, let’s talk about how weird the Jags roster is. A couple of years into their overpay of wide receiver Christian Kirk, it’s readily apparent that Christian Kirk is…fine…though far from striking fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. Ditto for Gabe Davis. I like the upside of rookie WR Brian Thomas. Mitch Morse and Brandon Scherff are their most exciting offensive linemen, and they are both on the back nine of their careers (while playing center and guard, respectively). Left tackle Cam Robinson is the textbook definition of “average.” Rookie RT Anton Harrison showed promise last season.

Evan Engram (another overpay) is a move-only “F” tight-end and functions as a big-slot receiver who is blocking nobody. That said, he’s not bad in the big slot role.

On the other side of the ball, the Jags got cute and drafted Trayvon Walker’s traits when they could have had Aidan Hutchinson’s actual ability/production. EDGE Josh Allen is a star/stud, and Foye Oluokon makes a lot of tackles. The secondary is led by safety Andre Cisco, who is a stud and on whom they’re getting great value for a 3rd round pick. Journeyman CB Ronald Darby is the secondary’s second-best player.

If we’ve learned anything about NFL rosters it’s that the worst thing you can do is hamstring yourself with a big QB contract, when that big QB contract isn’t going to somebody who tilts the field in your favor - like Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, et. al. Then you find yourself in Kirk Cousins Purgatory, where your quarterback gobbles up such a large percentage of the cap that you can’t put the right pieces around him for success. The result is perpetual mediocrity. With Lawrence’s big extension, the Jags have purchased themselves into Cousins Purgatory.

Why is the Brunell Comp Important?

In a franchise low on signature moments, quarterback Mark Brunell, whom the Jags acquired in a trade with Green Bay involving a 3rd and 5th round pick, provided nearly all of them. He beat John Elway’s Denver Broncos on the road in 1996 to propel the upstart Jags to the doorstep of the Super Bowl. He appeared in three Pro Bowls and - even in a far different era - had a higher average YPA than Lawrence, an almost identical interception percentage, and a similar rushing ceiling (4.7 YPC).

But perhaps most importantly, he had a bunch of signature moments (the tuck and run vs. Denver, the hurdle in the AFC Championship vs. New England), and a bunch of “wow, check out Mark Brunell” moments that defy the NFL Twitter Nerd Orthodoxy suggesting that “clutch” doesn’t exist. It’s why actually watching the games is important, in both cases, because Lawrence lacks such moments. And in an era that is calibrated for quarterbacks, and for passing stats - Lawrence’s just aren’t all that amazing. He still turns the ball over way too often, and for all the alleged athletic traits…they don’t show up often enough. After a horrendous rookie season (under unconscionable circumstances thanks to Urban Meyer), his teams have been solidly mediocre.

So think of Brunell as a bit of a Great Quarterback Mendoza Line. He’s not in the Hall of Fame, but exists in that Randall Cunningham/Rich Gannon territory where he can win games, go deep into the playoffs, provide exciting moments, and give a franchise some identity/direction.

Addendum: If you want to have some fun, watch some 1996 Jags Tony Boselli left tackle tape. Gosh he was awesome - a textbook pass protector and a wipeout run blocker.

But What About Mac Jones?

Pretty much nobody in the world is making the argument that former New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is better than Trevor Lawrence…but is he markedly worse (or even at all worse)?

Jones turned pro the same year as Trevor Lawrence but was, in many ways, his ideological foil. Whereas Lawrence was Greek-god-ish and imbued with “all the attributes,” Jones was a smaller, less-toolsy, non-runner with “processing skills.” After washing out in a similarly unconscionable circumstance (how about having a defensive coordinator as your offensive coordinator) with the Pats, Jones is now Lawrence’s backup. The Jags spent basically nothing on acquiring him. But here’s where it gets interesting.

They’ve both been to a Pro Bowl (for what it’s worth…probably little). Their winning percentage is similarly “meh.” But Mac’s YPA is (slightly) higher, as is his Completion Percentage (markedly). Mac has thrown three fewer interceptions, and their QB Rating (for what it’s worth, again) is nearly identical. Lawrence’s supporting cast was probably a little better, while Mac’s was arguably league-worst. It’s worth noting that Mac’s horrendous moments were memorably horrendous and he might be mentally-broken. That jury is still out.

The Media Perception Piece

Perception-wise, Mac Jones is a “bust” and Trevor Lawrence is a “high upside guy you need to keep in the building” - hence, the overpay. In reality, they’re basically the same, though Mac could have been extended for pennies on the dollar and Lawrence could have been traded this offseason, as there would have been a robust market for him.

Even after the draft he could probably have still been sold to the Raiders, Broncos, Seahawks or Giants. But doing so (the trade) would have resulted in widespread media outrage and teeth-gnashing, and would have resulted in the electronic tar-and-feathering of GM Trent Baalke all over social media. To be fair, the Jags may love Lawrence and think he has field-tilting Mahomesian potential. But the minute you realize he’s more “Mac Jones” than “Mahomes,” shouldn’t you hit the eject button, save $55 million a year, and start over? Especially with the reality that you can at least break serve with Jones until you figure it out, and that the assets that a Lawrence trade would have brought could have really moved you forward in another area (like a real LT, a CB, or another EDGE to pair with Allen)?

At the end of the day, Lawrence looks like a franchise quarterback, and has a franchise quarterback pedigree, but has a mediocre, middling body of work and a resoundingly average supporting cast. And that’s no recipe for success.